Foresight Reports

Foresight is a family of processes intended to capture the dynamics of change byplacing today's reality within the context of tomorrow's possibilities. It systematically identifies research and technology areas and market opportunities that are likely to generate socio-economic benefits for South Africa in the long term. The project has been divided into three phases:1. The pre-Foresight stage2. The main Foresight stage3. The post-Foresight stage.One of the crucial activities of the pre-Foresight stage was sector selection. TheForesight Advisory Board, the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technologyand the Foresight Management Team decided on the 12 final sectors to be run in this Foresight exercise, and the Youth Sector was one of them.The Youth Sector's mandate was to create a vision to link research and technologyto the needs and aspirations of the youth. This will empower and develop them tomake a positive and meaningful contribution to society. 

Foresight is a family of processes intended to capture the dynamics of change byplacing today's reality within the context of tomorrow's possibilities. It systematically identifies research and technology areas and market opportunities that are likely to generate socio-economic benefits for South Africa in the long term. The project has been divided into three phases:1. The pre-Foresight stage2. The main Foresight stage3. The post-Foresight stage.One of the crucial activities of the pre-Foresight stage was sector selection. TheForesight Advisory Board, the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technologyand the Foresight Management Team decided on the 12 final sectors to be run in this Foresight exercise, and the Youth Sector was one of them.The Youth Sector's mandate was to create a vision to link research and technologyto the needs and aspirations of the youth. This will empower and develop them tomake a positive and meaningful contribution to society.The project was conducted through a series of workshops involving young andmature people from a variety of backgrounds. Participants identified through the conomination process were asked to discuss and develop their thoughts and ideas about the future research and technology areas that are likely to have a major impact on youth. 

In South Africa, the six years since 1994 have been characterized by the need tounderstand and shape the future of this country and my Ministry has initiated a range of initiatives aimed at meeting this objective. In the science and technology field these initiatives include the White Paper on Science and Technology, the National Research and Technology Audit, the Review of Science and Technology Institutions and the National Research and Technology Foresight (NRTF).The Science and Technology White Paper, published in 1996, was based on the twinconcepts of innovation and a national system of innovation (NSI). The NRTF report is an important milestone that allows us to put real content into the NSI and thereby develop a framework of goals within which our technology programmes can be shaped. NRTF findings indicate a decline in the resource-based economic activities such as mining, primary agriculture and traditional manufacturing. In contrast, new developments in biotechnology, information and communications technologies and new materials signal the future ascendancy of a knowledge-based economy. The wealth of biological diversity in South Africa and our immense tourism potential have, as in other studies, been identified as focal points for growth.There are a number of challenges that need to be overcome though. The humanresources skills base and the ability to commercialise the new emerging technologies remain major obstacles. These challenges remain the priorities of this Ministry. However, the involvement of approximately 5 000 South African stakeholders in the NRTF offers hope in that we have created cohesive networks of our best minds as byproducts of the process. These networks, now accustomed to thinking analytically about ..

The National Research and Technology Foresight (NRTF) Project is one of a numberof initiatives launched by the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology(DACST) as part of its mandate to review and reform the science and technologysystem in South Africa. The NRTF Project looks at various sectors of the South African economy, and mining and metallurgy was one of the 12 sectors chosen.The Mining and Metallurgy Sector Working Group, the operational arm of theproject, was made up of about 30 knowledgeable people from government, the mining industry, labour, science councils, and tertiary education institutions. The aim of the Working Group was to identify research and technology topics and strategies for the mining and metallurgy sector in South Africa that could realise substantial economic and social benefits for the country over the next 10 to 20 years. DACST committed itself to using the results of the Foresight exercise as an important input into its investment in research and development.  Part of the Foresight process involved testing the outputs by means of a surveyquestionnaire distributed to the wider audience in the mining and metallurgy sector in South Africa. The Foresight survey carried out on this sector resulted in a statistically significant response that emphasised both wealth creation and quality of life as the major issues for all our people. Quality of life has a special significance in the mining sector and is directly related to both health and safety. The serious impact of HIV/AIDS over the next 10 to 20 years on our human resources, productivity and the economy, was noted as the priority issue ..

A Working Group drawn from members of industry, academia, government, parastatals and the NGO sector was convened by the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology to examine the impact of likely driving forces over the next twenty years on the Manufacturing and Materials sectors and their markets. The initiative aimed to identify key technologies and how these technologies were likely to impact the sectors contribution to quality of life and wealth creation for South Africa and it's broad population.The South African Manufacturing and Materials sectors are at a crossroads given the increased liberalization of the local economy and the re-entry of the country into the global arena over the last five years. A decade and a half of isolation has left these sectors more inwardly focused than their international counter parts and has resulted in many instances in a lack of competitiveness. Technology development, assimilation and application will be the crucial determining factors of how, and on what terms, the local industry integrates into the international market.The working group has made six sets of recommendations regarding the leveragingup and positioning of the Manufacturing and Materials sectors. Many of theserecommendations refer to 'softer issues' such as: human resource development andlegislative and regulatory frameworks which will allow these sectors to positionthemselves in a market from which they have been absent for some time. Thehighlighting of such issues is consistent with a country under going the level ofeconomic and political transformation, which South Africa is experiencing. 

The report you are about to read is one of fifteen comprising South Africa’s National Research and Technology Foresight project. Twelve tackle specific aspects of the South African society and economy and three so-called “cross-cutting” aspects.Collectively they represent critical input into shaping national research and technology policy that will likely have a long-lasting and positive impact on the creation of wealth and quality of life for all South Africa’s citizens. We recognise the initiative of the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology in launching the project, the leadership, drive and enthusiasm of the Foresight Project Director, Dr Philemon Mjwara, and the dedication of the team of sector coordinators and their support staff that managed a highly complex task over the past two years.This report addresses Information and Communications Technology (ICT), a uniquesector because it represents a scientific discipline and industry in its own right, as well as cutting across all other sectors. Even a cursory glance at the other outputs reveals the all-pervasive role of ICT as we enter the information age. The ICT sector is also unique in its pace of change and the rapid convergence of traditionally distinct areas of human endeavour. Indeed, it is almost impossible to construct a definition of ICT that will last longer than about six months before the boundaries shift. Nonetheless, the participants in the ICT foresight process were challenged to come up with plausible findings over a twenty-year time horizon! 

South Africa's National Research and Technology Foresight Project addressedspecific aspects of the South African economy. The Foresight Health Sector report isone of twelve sector reports that represent critical input into the shaping of SouthAfrica's research and technology agenda.Why undertake a foresight exercise for health? Health is among those sectors thatare evolving rapidly in response to technological advancement. It is sector that draws upon advances in other sectors, such as the information sector (telemedicine), the military sector (global positioning systems) and the environmental sector (malaria control) to name but a few. The farsighted initiative of the Minister of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology inlaunching the project is highly commended. The leadership, drive and enthusiasm of the Foresight Project Director, Dr Philemon Mjwara, the dedication of the team ofsector coordinators and their support staff over the two years are gratefully acknowledged. This particular report represents the consolidation of intense work carried out bythe Sector Coordinator, Glaudina Loots, and the members of the Working Group. The Working Group brought together skills from all the areas that make up theenvironment of health care in South Africa. 

The National Research and Technology Foresight (NRTF) project is one of a numberof initiatives launched by the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology(DACST) as part of its mandate to review and reform the science and technologysystem in South Africa. The NRTF project looks at various sectors of the South African economy, and financial services was one of the 12 sectors chosen.The Foresight Financial Services Sector agreed up front on the areas of focus for thesector. Six areas of focus were identified. They are:1. What should be done? (Services focus)2. Research focus3. Training focus4. Marketing focus5. Focus on the creation of enabling environment6. Financial Services focus.The local and international scans were then analysed for the purpose ofbenchmarking the sector locally and internationally. It transpired that the sector wasdoing well in incorporating new technologies and providing services as efficiently aspossible. Areas such as ATM, Internet banking, electronic account payment, etc. were identified as areas in which the sector is ahead of that of some developed countries. There were other areas in which work still needs to be done, such as fully providing other services relating to e-commerce and the use of multifunctional smart cards. 

The deliberations of the participants in the Foresight Environment Sector, using avariety of techniques, including local and international scans, SWOT and STEEPanalyses, scenario building and a wide-ranging survey, resulted in the identification of themes as the priority areas to be considered for the next ten to 20 years. Appropriate investments in the key technology areas listed in each each theme could ensure that South Africa will be better placed to enhance her international competitiveness as well as her capacity for accelerated internal socio-economic development. 

The role of energy as a critical and essential precursor to both social and economicdevelopment is well established. This is particularly true for South Africa, where social and economic inequities were institutionalised over a long period. The energy sector is already playing a critical role in meeting equity and redress challenges in South Africa.The inclusion of energy in the foresight exercise will hopefully lend even greatermomentum to this role, whilst identifying core research and technology strategies and priorities for the future. To this end the energy sector, if correctly positioned, will be able to continue underpinning the South African economy well into next century. This underpinning is not only based on low cost, high quality energy sources, supply, infrastructure and use, but also on environmental sustainability and the development of essential skills.The development of energy foresight has been an exercise that tapped the collective wisdom of a wide variety of South Africans. I feel that this collective wisdom has resulted in a list of research and technology challenges and recommendations that can be used to focus activity in the energy sector — in both the public and the private domain. 

A working group of nominated and selected stakeholders was tasked to participatein a process to foresight research and technology relevant to this sector. The mission of this group was 'to identify research and technology trends, requirements and strategies which will contribute to creating safer communities and promote thesecurity of South Africa and its people within the framework of the Constitution, inorder to realise sustainable social and economic benefits for the country over the next 20 years.'The process enabled the group to identify the opportunities, threats, strengths andweaknesses of the sector. From this it was established that there are no strengthswithin the sector to deal with two major threats, that of the lack of economic andindustrial growth and the morals and ethics of society. Further, the analysis identified that while technology is not perceived as a serious weakness at present, it could, if not given enough attention, become a significant threat to the resolution of the weaknesses of this sector, and also limit its ability to make use of the potential opportunities. 

Biodiversity was one of twelve sectors in the National Research and TechnologyForesight Project run by the Department of Arts Culture Science and Technology. This project was designed to identify national priorities in the field for the first two decades of the new millennium.Participants in the exercise were selected by a process of peer nomination, withadjustment to correct for the biases of education, training and access to the forums of debate and development of the past. The work was done in a number of workshops comprising a series of predetermined development steps and methodologies tested in foresight exercises in other countries.In the initial phases of the project, South Africa's current standing in the field ofbiodiversity as it related to research and technology was assessed, and compared tothe global situation. Armed with this baseline information, the working group spenttime developing a set of statements that covered all aspects of the sector that should be addressed in terms of national priorities for wealth creation and improvement of the quality of life in the country. A set of 71 such statements, grouped in 13 categories, was formulated and incorporated into a questionnaire for a Delphi survey. The questionnaire was then circulated to almost 900 targeted individuals, and the responses analysed by the working group. This process led to a set of recommendations for the development of biodiversity as a national resource. These were identified as follows:• Developing and maintaining a basic inventory• Monitoring global change and its impacts• Developing strategies for conservation and sustainable resource us• Identifying and conserving biodiversity in a system of protected ..

The Ministerial Committee on Science and Technology (MCST) commissioned theNational Research and Technology Foresight (NRTF) project in the Department of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology (DACST) in 1997. It is the first time in the history of South Africa that such a study has been conducted.The vision is to ensure that science and technology intervention brings an improvedquality of life, competitive economy and a shared democratic culture to all SouthAfricans. The Agriculture and Agroprocessing sector mission is:''To determine a national research and technology (R&T) strategic framework for theagriculture and agroprocessing sector that would realise a commercially viable,sustainable and equitable socio-economic development along with public understanding of science and technology in South Africa for the next twenty years.''Agriculture (including forestry) and agro-industrial processing (agroprocessing)make a major contribution to the South African economy. While the relativecontribution of agriculture to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only about 4% to 5%, its impact is much larger, as it directly provides 10,5% of the country's jobs and creates employment for another 16% of the workforce in other sectors. In 1994, agricultural exports resulted in foreign exchange to the tune of R7 240 million. The manufacturing industry contributes about 37% to the GDP, of which25% comes from agroprocessing. In 1997, the turnover of the South African food and beverage processing sector was R72 648 million.